Transportation Disruptions
Airport
Hong Kong International Airport has taken a hit from protests there. Sebastian Liu, a global threat analyst for Healix International and HX Global cited the Hong Kong Tourism Board's report that tourist arrivals dropped 4.8 percent year over year in July. In addition, "the protesters are intent on garnering attention from foreign media outlets and nationals, including Mainland Chinese nationals, and disrupting international air travel is a key way to achieve this," he said.
Here's what's been going on there, including activities this past weekend. On Aug. 5, air traffic controllers took part in a citywide strike, which led to the cancellations of around 250 flights. When protestors again took to the airport from Aug. 12 to Aug. 14, almost a thousand departing flights were canceled. For a day, travelers were trapped in the airport by the massive crowd outside, said International SOS regional security director Matthew Bradley.
Immediately after the airport disruptions, some organizations suspended travel to and from Hong Kong. Two days after operations resumed at the airport, the Association of Corporate Travel Executives canceled the ACTE Global Summit in Macau, which would have taken place Aug. 26 and 27, stating "that ongoing civil unrest in the city poses a risk" to its attendees, sponsors, vendors and staff.
On Aug. 23, Hong Kong's airport authority extended a court injunction, originally secured Aug. 14, to prevent protests from obstructing or interfering with passenger traffic and to contain demonstrations to designated airport areas. According to the airport's website, the only people allowed in the terminal buildings are passengers who have valid IDs or passports and valid tickets or boarding passes for flights leaving in the following 24 hours, plus airport staff with relevant identification.
On Sunday, protesters defied the injunction. They blocked roads with barricades, disrupting some express bus services to the airport and causing traffic tie-ups. The Mass Transit Railway suspended the Airport Express line related to protests impacting the rail system. As a result of the Sept. 1 protests, 25 passenger flights were canceled.
By the evening, traffic between the airport and the city had returned to normal, according to the airport. Liu expects such weekend disruptions to continue. "Travelers transiting through HKG airport can expect travel disruption on protest days, though the protesters are not known to specifically target foreign nationals," he said.
City Rail
Protestors have deliberately caused traffic disruptions and interrupted services on the MTR, including during peak hours on weekdays. "Protesters have been known to conduct sit-in demonstrations at MTR stations and disrupt services by preventing the closure of train doors via various means," Liu said. On Aug. 5, eight MTR lines were suspended or partially suspended due to protests, he noted. On Aug. 23, MTR obtained an injunction similar to the airport's. However, during the weekend of Aug. 24 and 25, several stations suspended services at several stations again due to protests, according to WorldAware Asia/Pacific intelligence analyst Brendan O'Reilly. Then, on Aug. 31 and Sept. 1, protestors damaged several stations and MTR again suspended service on several lines. To get around these disruptions, business travelers are using ridehailing services and taxis or working from their hotels, and locals can work from home.
"The protests don't appear to be ending anytime soon," said Anvil Group director of risk mitigation and intelligence Grant Miller. He was speaking before Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam today withdrew the extradition bill that prompted initial protests in June. The bill would have allowed Mainland China officials to extradite Hong Kong citizens for trial. It had been shelved, but the protestors were demanding it officially be withdrawn from consideration and had added four other demands. So the protests continued, including events that disrupted transportation over the past weekend (see Transportation Disruptions at right).
Whether the protestors will keep on now that Lam has withdrawn the bill remains to be seen. "We must find ways to address the discontent in society and look for solutions," Lam said Wednesday evening. "After more than two months of social unrest, it is obvious to many that this discontentment extends far beyond the bill." And yet she refused to grant the protestors' other demands.
If the Protests Continue
Experts with whom BTN spoke said protesters have not targeted business travelers and Hong Kong is still a low-risk area. People who live and work in the city are inconvenienced by the protests, but they can still operate there, said International SOS regional security director Matthew Bradley. "At this point, there is no disruption to essential services or commodities, so you're not worried about people being without power, food, water or anything like that," he said. Sebastian Liu, a global threat analyst at Healix International and HX Global, said, "There is also no major precedent for vandalism on the part of protesters toward neutral venues, and for that reason, buildings that have no symbolic significance have been largely unaffected."
Some travel risk management providers have advised clients temporarily to prohibit travel to Hong Kong for noncritical business trips. In any case, business travelers should maintain flexible itineraries and adjust their flights whenever needed, they said.
The U.S. State Department's travel advisory for Hong Kong escalated from Level 1 to Level 2 on Aug. 14 and remains there, indicating that travelers should increase caution. The U.K., Australia and South Korea also issued advisories to citizens traveling to Hong Kong, and Singapore recommended people defer nonessential travel there, according to Bradley. China has not changed visa rules and requirements for travel to Hong Kong, according to VisaHQ.
Two types of protests are occurring in Hong Kong. Planned rallies and marches usually receive police permission, are announced and are generally peaceful, said WorldAware Asia/Pacific intelligence analyst Brendan O'Reilly. Pop-up protests, planned over the internet and often held around government locations, are where clashes with authorities are more likely to occur. Travelers are at risk of incidental violence in such settings. "The police have increasingly demonstrated a willingness to use tear gas within public areas, including enclosed [Mass Transit Railway] stations, increasing the risk to bystanders," said Liu. "Moreover, under the Police General Orders, the police have the legal right to enter private property without a warrant to search premises and pursue suspects, providing they have a justifiable reason to do so."
O'Reilly noted: "Visitors can generally avoid localized disruptions and potential violence simply by staying away from the demonstrations and leaving the area immediately if an unannounced protest breaks out."
Thus far, large-scale protests have occurred on the weekends, but if they become daily and 9-to-5 workers participate, businesses and services would be disrupted. Then "it's affecting day-to-day life and the workweek and it would mean people are leaving work to go to these protests," said Bradley. He pointed to taxi, train and general strikes, in particular. "If they are protesting every day and nobody can get to work, you've got to start wondering if people need to be there," he said.
Government Response
In recent weeks, Chinese state media had labeled protesters as radicals and terrorists, which may set the stage for more aggressive police tactics and, potentially, military intervention. Should protests continue, the state media's use of such rhetoric "may represent a signal [from China] to the Hong Kong government that they have greater leeway in suppressing the protests," said Liu.
The Hong Kong government also may use the July discovery of explosives linked to pro-democracy protesters as justification to ramp up repressive tactics. This "may also potentially be used to justify the detention and prosecution of protesters using Hong Kong's extensive body of laws that protect national security or the invocation of the Emergency Regulations Ordinance," said Liu. The Emergency Regulations Ordinance would grant Lam emergency powers to quell protests. Indeed, during an Aug. 27 press conference, she did not rule out such a move. "The emergency order would essentially grant Chief Executive Carrie Lam with sweeping powers, including over arrests, detentions and deportations, and media censorship," said Liu. She could draft regulations in such a way as to remove the rights normally guaranteed to protesters, including a 48-hour limit on detaining a person without charging him or her.
On Sept. 3, the Chinese government for the first time asserted it has the unilateral power to declare a state of emergency in Hong Kong should the unrest not cease. It also recommended measures Hong Kong's government could implement, including outlawing the use of masks in protests.
The Chinese military also has been making its presence known to protesters. "Satellite images on 12th August revealed 500 or more military vehicles parked in and around the Shenzhen Bay Sports Center, just across the harbor from Hong Kong, while on 15th August, the security forces had a large-scale military parade at the stadium, with some sporting insignias of the People's Armed Police" of China, said Liu.
Should the Chinese government use military force against protesters, bystanders would be in harm's way. Risk management experts with whom BTN spoke last week said at the time that military intervention was unlikely, owing to the likelihood of international condemnation and to potential damage to the city's reputation as a global economic hub. However, if the military intervenes or the police use repressive tactics, Bradley said, companies should reevaluate their presence in the area.
On the Ground in Hong Kong with Domino's Pizza
In addition to the 10 employees who work in Domino's Pizza's Hong Kong regional office, 30 employees travel in and out of the area in a given month. From her home base in Michigan, Domino's travel and events manager Becky Kalucki has been working closely with her security team to stay on top of the situation. Together, they are in contact with travelers and employees who live in the area. Kalucki also has regular conversations with the Hong Kong office's administrative assistant.
Kalucki receives alerts from BCD Travel business intelligence platform DecisionSource and from International SOS on anything from airline strikes to protests to military actions. The company's safety and security team monitors ISOS's traveler tracking map, and Kalucki uses her DecisionSource traveler care map to identify travelers going to and from those risky areas. She also communicates to her travelers a heightened need to heed traveler warnings, both those she shares and the counsel shared via local media. For example, she received an alert about protests scheduled for Aug. 23, 24 and 25 and shared the locations with local employees and travelers scheduled to be in the city. If unscheduled protests pop up along an employee's route to the office or a meeting, Domino's has reinforced to local employees and travelers: "If you don't feel safe, don't go." The company also has adopted a safety-in-numbers approach, sending more employees together to Hong Kong at a time.
So what happens if things do escalate between protestors and authorities? The steps the company has taken during Hong Kong transportation disruptions thus far provide examples. When the airport shut down, BCD arranged to fly Kalucki's travelers out of airports in Mainland China instead. During rail disruptions, Domino's employees and travelers have worked from home or their hotels or have driven their own cars or vehicles supplied by the company. "We just made sure they were connecting with a safe mode of transportation to get them to their place of work or appointment," she said.
Updated Wednesday, Sept. 4, at 7:35 a.m. Eastern to reflect that Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam acceded to protestors' initial demand by removing the extradition bill from consideration.