Options Travel's Mark Walton warns against replacing facts and analysis with conjecture.
As we are in the midst of the pandemic, what I've heard from numerous—not all—travel industry colleagues is that the road to recovery in the travel sector will be a long one. Clearly the impact of this tragedy on the world has not been seen before and hopefully won't again. While common sense tells us that a turnaround won't occur overnight, predictions of a year or greater are not predictions based on quantitative analysis, but only opinions. When person after person reads and then espouses these opinions, they have a good chance of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.
What I am suggesting is that we be careful about promoting opinions rather than facts. Being positive and hopeful will help. I am neither unrealistic nor unaware, but I do suggest we look at this situation with a glass-half-full versus half-empty approach, and speak with fact versus conjecture.
Proving the contention that words spread quickly and become perceived facts, on a recent phone call with numerous people from three countries, an article I had just read predicting a very long road back was mentioned. Someone else on the call, however, quoted one of their very large clients who suggested their business will be back at 100 percent by the fourth quarter of this year.
I've witnessed difficult times in our industry. Suppliers, customers, media and trade groups all have consistently supported one another, always. We are fortunate to participate in a group of global travel management company competitors who are part of the WIN Global Network. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we've met every Friday to exchange ideas, understand how each of us are doing, solve specific corporate global customer needs, review global technology and just lend another voice to what otherwise can be isolated thinking. Last week's call including discussion around duty of care, access to global fare content, meetings and events and more.
We already see signs that meetings are being booked or rebooked. According to Melissa Le'ppin, chief sales officer of Meetings.com: "Our data shows that meeting and event planning and planning for store operations support in segments like grocery and community supply stores are being scheduled for fall. Larger entities are reviewing current programs and seeking out and signing agreements to add further automation to their meetings programs, with better controls on spend and increased efficiency as their top priorities. These companies are tracking areas worldwide and beginning to reschedule larger groups, conferences and events previously canceled due to worldwide social distancing. I would not call this a trend yet—but companies are starting to come off the sidelines to book mission-critical meetings and for continuing operations."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on a March 29 appearance on Fox News Sunday said that while he is unsure of just how bad the effect of the coronavirus outbreak ultimately will be on the U.S. economy, he is confident that it will only be a short-term problem. Mnuchin predicted that by the third quarter of 2020, Americans will see an economic recovery with production and employment levels back up.
As an industry let's continue to unite, be positive and supportive of one another. With that, we will be stronger and more successful. I have no doubt this will happen.